Why Horner?

Yesterday I was contacted by the Horner campaign asking me to put down in words why I am supporting Tom Horner for Governor. Below is my response:

I can’t recall a time in recent Minnesota history when so much was riding on the outcome of a gubernatorial election. While our state economy is finally in a somewhat steady but tepid recovery, we face a massive budget deficit. And if that is not enough of a challenge, the long-term demographics of an aging and ethically changing population will tax our public services, our current and future workforce and our public infrastructure. To say that we need a governor with real vision, leadership and a record of accomplishment seems like an understatement. For the truth is that in spite of what Garrison Keillor may tell his national audience each week, we Minnesotans know that our state has been slipping on many key parameters for some time. Can we really call ourselves “above average” anymore? I’m not so sure.

For most of the past decade we seamlessly transitioned from one budget deficit to the next, with no effort to truly or honestly balance the budget. Remember when we used to have a substantial budget reserve; a massive tobacco endowment; or a sizable surplus in the health care access fund? It really wasn’t that many years ago, but they are all gone because our state officials and legislators chose to throw one-time money at recurring budget problems. Instead of honestly addressing our needs with real budget cuts and/or real revenue enhancements, they chose to take the politically easy route with the use of one-time funds, accounting gimmicks and shifts. Who in their right mind would call that sound political or fiscal stewardship?

To be honest, I don’t envy our next Governor as it is not going to be easy. We are going to need a Governor who is willing to make very difficult decisions and ask us all to sacrifice a bit to successfully get through this mess. And I mean all of us. Not just the wealthy through higher taxes and not just the poor through draconian cuts in service. Not just the struggling rural communities through cuts in police, fire and essential services; and not just the local taxpayer through higher school levies. But all of us together.

Benjamin Franklin was famously quoted as saying at the signing of the Declaration of Independence, “We must all hang together, or assuredly we shall all hang separately.” It is time for a new kind of leader to bring Minnesotans together; a leader with creative vision and skills. We need a leader who is more interested in pragmatically solving our problems than simply getting elected. And I believe that Tom Horner is that kind of leader. I have known Tom Horner for several years and have always admired his creativity, his leadership and his ability to bring diverse views to consensus. Equally important, I do not believe that at this critical point in our state’s history that we can rationally expect the representatives of the two parties that made this mess to fix it; they are simply too polarized. That is why centrist Democrats, Republicans and Independents who deeply care about the future of this state are standing up for Tom Horner. I am pleased to be one of them.

The best Subway in Minnesota

As some know, I spend a heck of a lot of time in my car, clocking around 48,000 miles per year. From Crookston to Duluth, to Slayton and Zumbrota. It's an incredibly big state and I love it all. As a result, I've probably stopped at more than 50 different Subway sandwich shops all across the state. Some have been stand alone shops, while others are in in truck stops, gas stations or strip malls. But there is little doubt that Subway is my favorite when I'm on the road, as I find it quick and easy; and if you leave off the lettuce, it's pretty easy to eat at 70 mph without making a mess.

While my intent was never to become a Subway sandwich aficionado, in many ways that's exactly what I have become. So with that in mind, I want to tell you that I have designated the Subway in Ada, MN along State Highway 9 as the best Subway in Minnesota. I've must have stopped there at least 15 times and the bread is always fresh, the store is always clean, the tuna is the best I have ever tasted and the cookies (a must!) are always soft and fresh.

So congrats Ada! You have a great Subway store.

A Turning Point for the Minnesota Economy?

As we look back it just may turn out that July marked a real turning point for the Minnesota economy. As we all know, for the past few years the Minnesota economy and its job outlook has been in retrenchment, or at best going sideways.  But beginning in mid-2009 some signs of recovery began to emerge, with job growth one month and retrenchment the next.  Temporary workers were showing up on payrolls and the signs of a recovery taking hold were there.
 
Then came the month of July when the Department of Employment and Economic Development reported that Minnesota had a net gain of 9,800 jobs.  Pretty impressive in itself, until you realize that during the same month we also lost 9,100 government jobs.  Many of these government jobs were temporary census workers, but clearly not the majority.  So for a net gain of 9,800 jobs to occur, this actually meant that the private sector created almost 19,000 jobs in July. Now that’s a pretty good month!  In fact, Minnesota has now gained almost 30,000 jobs in the past 12 months; a pace not matched in almost 4 years.
 
If you currently examine our economy within the national context, you’d have to come to the conclusion that while the recovery is slower than we would like, it’s really not doing too bad.  We’ve now recovered more than 25 percent of the jobs lost in the recession and our unemployment rate of 6.8 percent is almost 3 percentage points lower than the national rate of 9.6 percent. And while a 6.8% unemployment rate is still high, let’s remember that several other states are still stuck in double-digits.  And of course, it wasn’t that long ago when a 4-5% unemployment rate was viewed by many as “full employment.”
 
Of course, you’d never know that the economic recovery is on track if you listen to our politicians and public officials.  With a substantial budget deficit at the state level, it’s easy to blame the economy for this situation.  But the reality is that the Minnesota economy and the Minnesota state budget are two entirely different things.  The economy of course is a reflection of the production, sale and distribution of goods and services continuously circulating throughout a global marketplace.  As much as government tries, it really cannot make an impact on the economy as quickly or as comprehensively as politicians would have you believe.
 
The state budget on the other hand is a political instrument, reflecting the culmination of dozens and dozens of political decisions and compromises; some good – some bad.  But unlike the economy, a small group of political leaders can make a huge impact on the state budget. Choices to raise taxes, lower taxes, use one-time funds to temporarily resolve recurring problems, or shift expenses into the next budget cycle are all political decisions. So the next time your local legislator or public official wants to blame the economy for our budget woes don’t let them off so easy.
 
In the end no one knows for certain what the remainder of 2010 will bring, but my guess is that the economy and the job outlook will continue to incrementally improve until we reach a full recovery.  But when we are fully recovered, don’t expect everything to look like it did prior to the recession.  The reality is that some of our business sectors will never fully recover and the overall employment composition in Minnesota will have changed. This may be especially true within some regional areas across the state.  And looking a bit further out, demographic shifts, educational attainment and other socio-economic characteristics of the workforce, along with the integrity of our regional and state infrastructure will all influence the future economic and employment outlook for Minnesota.
 
Many economists and pundits are now calling this emerging economic configuration the “New Normal.”  I think they are on to something.
 

What I want in a Governor

I don't think I can recall a time in recent history where the stakes have
been higher for a gubernatorial election.  With the Minnesota economy in a
steady, but fragile recovery; a whopping $6-7 billion state budget
deficit; and a massive wave of baby-boomers about to retire, the need for
a leader with vision and skills is essential.
The truth is that our state economy, while weakened, is not doing that
bad.  Our state budget on the other hand is a mess because both Democrat
and Republican leaders have mismanaged it for most of the past decade.
Putting the needs of their party ahead of the needs of their state, our
leaders have been content to kick the can down the road, while praying
that the economy takes off again.  Too bad it didn't work.
So as I listen to the current crop of gubernatorial candidates all I hear
is the same old tax the rich message from one party; and a trickle down -
starve the beast message from the other.  This is not leadership.
I want a new kind of leader for a 21st Century Minnesota.  I want a leader
that is not bound and censored by party officials.  I want a leader who
wants to solve problems - not just win elections.  I want a leader who
cares about the well-being of our small rural towns, as well our Fortune
500 companies.  And I want a leader who is not shy about telling me that
we all will have to sacrifice to get out of this mess.  I want ... Tom
Horner as our next Governor.

Having the Courage not to Pander

I’m sure that over the years in his role as a political strategist and communications professional, Tom Horner has helped dozens of political candidates prepare for a major speech, debate or similar event. Of course, the first rule for such preparation is always the same – know your audience. As a result, political candidates are advised not to talk about cutting Medicare or means-testing Social Security when addressing the AARP; nor are they going to discuss the merits of alternative teacher licensure when giving a speech to the Education Minnesota crowd; and they certainly won’t discuss cutting producer payments when meeting with the members of the Farm Bureau. Some may view such strategy as smartly tailoring their message, but often it’s no more than pandering. In other words, just tell the crowd what they want to hear.

So why was Tom Horner the only candidate to go into the tent at Farm Fest last week and tell the crowd that he believes that it is time to end the subsidy payments to ethanol producers? Political suicide; or is Tom Horner what we used to call a “straight shooter?” You know what I mean, the kind of guy who will give you the same answer to your face as he would behind your back. Well … I really can’t tell you what Mr. Horner was thinking, but I can tell you that it takes a lot of courage not to pander when facing 1,000 farmers deep in the heart of Minnesota’s First District.

But if you think about it, it fits perfectly with the straight talk we have heard from Mr. Horner to date. He’s the only candidate who has outlined a plan for tackling our looming budget mess; or reforming our taxes; or financing a Vikings Stadium; need I go on? Maybe it’s that Horner has nothing to lose; or maybe he realizes that we are in such a deep budget mess that Minnesotans can’t afford anything less than straight talk? I don’t know; but I can tell you that if you watch the political ads from the other candidates you would never know that our state is facing a $6 billion deficit. All they want to do is tell you that they will invest more in K-12 education or alternative energy jobs. With what money … WE’RE BROKE! Heck even Candidate Emmer, who never saw a state budget line item that he wouldn’t cut, couldn’t look the farmers at Farm Fest in the eye and tell them that we can’t afford the ethanol subsidies anymore.

I don’t know about you, but I’m tired of being pandered to. All I want is a candidate that will give me a straight answer to a straight question – and then try their best to follow through if they are elected. From what I can see, Tom Horner is the only candidate that passes that test.

Private Troubles vs. Public Issues

There’s little doubt that between now and the mid-term elections, all we are going to hear about is record high unemployment and jobs, jobs, jobs. And during times like these, I can’t help but think about the late C. Wright Mills. Mills was a Texan and one of America’s most influential sociologists. His 1959 classic, The Sociological Imagination, should be required reading for both policy makers and those who aspire to be.

One of Mills’ fundamental concepts was both the distinction and connection between one’s “private troubles” and societal “public issues.” Simply put Mills would argue that if you come home one day to learn that your teenage daughter is pregnant, that’s your private troubles. On the other hand if 25 percent of the teenage girls at the local high school turn up pregnant, it’s a public issue! In other words, at some point we cross a threshold and come to understand that we are dealing with more than personal failings; and therefore the solutions need to be structural and societal. And I couldn’t help but think of Mills during the summer-long debate regarding the extension of unemployment benefits to workers who are categorized as the long-term unemployed.

Those who opposed the extension of benefits regularly cited two reasons. The first was simply that if Congress wishes to extend these benefits they should identify a mechanism to pay for it. That sure makes sense to me. But other voices opposed to the extension of benefits seemed to suggest that allowing unemployment benefits to expire was precisely the medicine needed to get the long-term unemployed off the couch and on to a payroll.

How anyone can be immune to the fact that the national unemployment rate is still above 9%; that there are currently 5 applicants for every job opening; or watch on the nightly news the thousands of unemployed Americans lining up at job fairs all across the country is beyond me. Using Mills’ framework, I guess they still view being unemployed as one’s private troubles instead of a public issue.

But allow me to give you one more reason for extending unemployment benefits that may not have been emphasized to date. That being, in some ways it is a more direct jobs stimulus than any of those that have been proposed to date. Allow me to explain.

As every business person knows, there are two commonly used figures that summarize the health of a business: the “top” line and the “bottom” line. The top line reflects the demand for the goods and services a business produces and sells. A growing top line means that demand for your products is increasing. The bottom line however, takes into account the sales reflected in the top line, but also factors in the costs of production and delivery. So the bottom line more accurately reflects the business’s net income.
Both figures are extremely important, but top line growth is much more important when you are trying to stimulate job creation. Think about it this way, government tax credits or the relaxation of certain regulations may in fact help improve the bottom line and make the business more profitable. But increased business income does not really motivate business owners to hire more workers. Rather, the primary event that really motivates business owners to create more jobs is a significant and sustained increase in sales (the top line). If factory orders or showroom sales increase to the point where the business cannot meet this growing demand in a timely fashion, they hire more workers. It’s often that simple.

Returning to the issue of the unemployed, the reality is that providing the extension of benefits not only keeps households afloat during tough times; but because unemployed workers are typically cash-strapped, funds paid in unemployment benefits will quickly be re-invested back into the local economy to pay for rent, utilities, groceries, gasoline, clothing, etc… In other words, it helps directly increase the top line of local businesses; supports local demand and improves the chances of local job growth. On the other hand, the majority of jobs programs comprised of tax breaks and incentives for business owners may in fact reduced business expenses and improve their bottom line, but if it doesn’t increase business sales, it won’t serve to stimulate any new jobs.

So how long do we continue to extend benefits to the long-term unemployed? After all, where does it end? Well if Mills were alive today he would likely suggest that if you are unemployed when the unemployment rate is below 6 percent, that’s your private troubles. But as long as the unemployment rate hovers close to 10 percent it’s a matter of public policy.

Is Tom Horner the Guy?

Like many policy junkies, I've been doing my best keeping up with the twists and turns of the 2010 Governor's race. I read a lot in the papers, check out the blogs (both good and bad), and went to some of the gubernatorial forums. But with each passing day I find myself more drawn to the campaign of Tom Horner than I ever would have expected. In general I have always thought of myself as a slightly left-of-center independent voter with a greater propensity to vote for the democratic candidate; but have had no regrets voting for Arne Carlson, Dave Durrenberger, or G.H.W. Bush.

My greatest concern is with the state of our state budget. However, unlike others I am not concerned with the state of the Minnesota economy, which seems to be in a reasonable recovery mode, although it's not recovering as fast as people may like. Besides, there is little that government can do to significantly accelerate the economy ... So why worry about it?

On the other hand, our state budget is an area where we do have a bit more control, so I have been looking at the candidates, with an ear open to learn what their thinking actually is in this regard. To be honest, the bar I set is not very high! I am not looking for a candidate's grand plan for balancing the budget, for I know that they don't really have one. But I want to have a sense of their direction and understand why.

And it is in that context that I find myself drawn to Tom Horner. Maybe it's because he doesn't have a political machine to censor him, or maybe it's just his way of communicating, but I find him to be both thoughtful and refreshingly candid. And it's not just that he's not a Democrat or not a Republican. Let's be honest ... The Independence Party is not much of a party, nor do I understand what they stand for. But in his campaign to date, he has not only shared what direction he wishes to take the State ... But WHY!! And for me, I see his logic and it makes sense.

As The Rural Guy, I didn't really see myself embracing a politician from Edina. But I think this guy gets it. He gets it with his pick of Jim Mulder as a running mate; he gets it with his thinking on LGA; and he gets it with his ideas on tax reform.

Finally, I read the results of a recent survey of Twin Cities business people who were asked which candidate would be best equipped to handle the state budget situation and Mr. Horner was ranked first. Then these same business people were asked who was likely to win the Governor's race and Mr. Horner ranked fourth. I'm not sure what exactly to make of that, other than Mr. Horner has a lot of work to do.

But I think I want to help this guy.